Ramzan Kadyrov, the longtime President of Chechnya, has just resigned. Why is this important? Because this also just happened today.
To give a bit of background, the conditions on the ground in Chechnya around 2004, when he assumed command of the country after his murdered father, was dire. Putin wanted a clean resolution; the Chechen people were fractured, split among the Chechen Nationalists and the International Islamic Brigade fundamentalists. The nation wanted peace, the Jihadists wanted Jihad and the world was watching.
Kadyrov found himself allied with Putin, and forced peace happened, up to this point. There’s been other incidents, most notably the 2011 Domodedovo Airport Bombing, but overall, he’s kept the place straight, by hook, crook, or however else.
Given recent statements by him in regards to Chechen fighters on behalf of ISIS and the lesser known brigade fighting for Right Sektor in Ukraine( a Ukraine Nationalist/Anti-Russia militia and political party), both of these events point to a direction that may rapidly go south. According to CSM:
In fact, Kadyrov is issuing an ultimatum to Mr. Putin to step in and personally support him for reelection in voting due this September, or risk destabilizing the strongman rule that has kept Chechnya pacified for the past 8 years, they say.
MLCOA
Kadyrov will step down; Putin will place another seemingly more legitimate leader in. Factions will begin grumbling, and the more fundamentalist elements will gain a renewed vigor lost since Doku Umarov was killed in 2013. With this, Putin’s administration will use this escalation, including the murdered child, as the justification to further the war against ISIS. The West’s support of the more radical elements will be implied, as it was in the late 90s(not without merit either) and has been of ISIS recently.
MDCOA
Kadyrov refuses to step down even after his resignation and triggers a larger revolt of the liberal elements in the region and Russia, leading to the Islamists to take advantage of the situation in a power grab. The insurrection would cause a serious internal upheaval in Russia with a large uptick in Islamic violence. Although unlikely, Kadyrov as a result of disillusionment with the Kremlin, begins aligning closer with the Fundamentalists.
Either way, this ain’t pretty.
Now would be a good time to remind everyone, this half-Chechen guy to the right
This situation has deep implications and it’s going to get a lot worse. All during an election year for the US as well. Nothing happens by accident.